the fog could soon be lifting from Melbourne’s property market. Picture: Nicole Garmston

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel in Melbourne’s property market, which has shown positive signs in recent weeks as it shivers through wintry conditions.

CoreLogic-Moody’s is expecting a “modest recovery” for the city in 2020, but it will follow a forecast 10.8 per cent drop in Greater Melbourne house values this year.

That’s after a 0.3 per cent decline in 2018.

The market is in the depths of a naturally quieter period for winter. Picture: Sarah Matray

“By early 2020, house values across most of Greater Melbourne are forecast to experience a return to month-on-month growth,” the latest CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast states.

“Overall, Greater Melbourne house values are expected to tick up 1.3 per cent in 2020, with Melbourne-inner east and Melbourne-northeast leading the recovery.”


House values in regional Victoria are also expected to continue “holding up relatively well” in the coming months, but rises are forecast to be at a slower pace than last year.

Regional Victorian house values are tipped to increase by 3.3 per cent in 2020, following an expected 1.5 per cent gain in 2019.

Melbourne’s unit market decline has been “less pronounced” than that of houses, the values of which have lost 14 per cent from their peak after 18 months of decline.

But unit values are expected to slip 3.9 per cent this year and 0.3 next, following a gain of 1.8 per cent in 2018 and an 18-month-high increase in May.

This unit market decline is expected to be most pronounced in the outer east, southeast and Mornington Peninsula, where values are projected to decline about 8 per cent.

“In 2020, the (unit market) weakness is expected to persist in Melbourne-southeast, Melbourne-west, Melbourne-inner south, and the Mornington Peninsula, where further, albeit less pronounced, declines are forecast,” the report states.

“Recoveries are forecast to take place elsewhere in Greater Melbourne, with Melbourne-inner east and Melbourne-northwest leading the gains.”And there’s some good news for inner east house owners, with a 5.5 per cent gain the largest forecast for Melbourne’s regions in 2020 after shouldering some of the heaviest losses.

House values in the inner east have edged up since April and the pace of declines “has slowed noticeably” in the inner south and southeast.

Those areas are forecast to shed 13.9, 14.9 and 9.8 per cent respectively this year.

Melbourne’s median house sale price was $710,750, and the median unit sale price was $360,000, in the 12 months to March, according to CoreLogic.


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